Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
- Nicholas G. Davies
- SASam Abbott
- Rosanna C. Barnard
- Christopher I Jarvis
- Adam J. Kucharski
- James D Munday
- Carl A. B. Pearson
- Timothy Russell
- Damien C. Tully
- Alex Washburne
- Tom Wenseleers
- Amy Gimma
- William Waites
- Kerry LM Wong
- Kevin van Zandvoort
- Justin D. Silverman
- CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
- Karla Diaz‐Ordaz
- Ruth H. Keogh
- Rosalind M. Eggo
- SFSebastian Funk
- Mark Jit
- Katherine E. Atkins
- W. John Edmunds
- SFSebastian Funk
- SASam Abbott
- SFSebastian Funk
- SFSebastian Funk
- SASam Abbott
- SFSebastian Funk
Science · 2021 · American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Abstract
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.